THE INDEPENDENT VOTE
The accepted truth over the last several months has been that forty-eight percent of the electorate is solidly for Bush, an equal portion is for Kerry, and both those segments have completely decided how they are going to vote no matter what.
The natural conclusion then is that the elusive five percent of "undecided voters" hold all the power because they will be the ones who decide this election. If either party wants to win, they must channel the vast majority of their energies into courting these middle voters.
That logic is flawed because the foundation of the assumption is flawed.
The foundation for this thinking is based upon the polling that has been done over the last several months. We all know that pollsters separate their results between "registered" and "likely" voters. They identify likely voters by asking about their previous voting habits, whether or not they plan on voting in the upcoming election, and whether they can actually remember for whom they had voted in the past.
The most recent polls indicate that likely voters make up about eighty to eighty-five percent of the polled registered voters.
Here is the rub. On voting day, only seventy percent of registered voters actually show up to the polls. In other words, the various polling outfits are incorrectly identifying ten to fifteen percent as likely voters.
It is not hard to believe that 96% of those polled have decided upon their man for the job of president. It is not even hard to believe that those hold their positions unwaveringly. But the question is not about for whom they would vote, but whether or not they are going to vote.
Adopting this thinking completely changes the strategy of a campaign. Instead of concentrating on the undefinable needs of a population that doesn't know themselves what they want, victory depends upon making sure those that support you get to the polls.
In this election it is turnout that is going to make the difference.